Global Oil Flows and Policy Shifts Keep Prices Range-Bound as OPEC+, US Data, and Venezuelan Reopening Shape Markets

Valentia Energy Partners Newsroom — Oil & Gas
Date: 02-13-2026

Market Snapshot

• Brent: Mid $70s/bbl

• WTI: High $60s/bbl

• Heavy-Sour Differentials: Mixed, sensitive to Venezuelan and Russian flows

Trend Diagnosis:
Global crude remains range-bound, as markets balance incremental supply, geopolitical shifts, and evolving demand signals.

Key February 13 Drivers

1️⃣ India Expands Venezuelan Oil Intake

• Reliance secures a U.S. license for Venezuelan crude, expanding Asia’s heavy-sour optionality.

• Additional flows reposition ton-miles, potentially influencing Atlantic Basin freight and Mediterranean differentials.

2️⃣ U.S. Broadly Opens Venezuela to Majors

• Licenses allow Chevron, Shell, Eni, Repsol, and others to resume operations and negotiate new upstream contracts.

• Execution timelines and infrastructure constraints will govern actual production growth.

3️⃣ OPEC+ Leans Toward April Output Increases

• Signals a managed resumption, balancing price stability with market share defense.

• Incremental supply may affect Brent-Dubai spreads and prompt backwardation levels.

4️⃣ Russian Crude to China Slows and Discounts Widen

• Oversupply in Asia pressures Urals and ESPO offers.

• China’s teapots and state refiners leverage buying power to optimize margins without collapsing demand.

5️⃣ Venezuelan Flows to Spain Resume

• After a year-long gap, Spain’s heavy-capable refiners begin receiving Venezuelan crude.

• Mediterranean and Atlantic dynamics may shift, compressing heavy-light spreads.

6️⃣ Price Sentiment Anchors on US Inflation and Freight Visibility

• Stable Brent and WTI reflect balancing between expected OPEC+ supply, Venezuelan and Russian flows, and global demand data.

• “Oil on water” cargoes remain a tactical price influence, especially in Asia.

What the Market Is Missing

• Flow vs Headlines: Many developments are structural but do not translate to immediate barrels. Licensing, compliance, and execution timelines matter.

• Freight & Ton-Miles: Longer Venezuelan and Russian routes create hidden arbitrage opportunities before prices adjust.

• Asia’s Strategic Role: India and China are no longer just buyers — they are margin-optimizing hubs influencing global heavy-sour balance.

Forward Outlook (Next 7–14 Days)

• Track licensed Venezuelan cargoes and discharge points.

• Monitor OPEC+ announcements on April output adjustments.

• Observe Urals and ESPO differentials to China and India.

• Watch US inventory releases and inflation reports for near-term price influence.

• Freight curve signals will provide the earliest indication of supply absorption.

Cross-Market Signals

• Heavy-Light Spreads: Venezuela and Russia impact Atlantic and Mediterranean refiners.

• Diesel Margins: Indian export flows and European heavy imports influence cracks.

• Brent-WTI Spread: Sensitive to Atlantic Basin vs Gulf Coast optionality.

Strategic Overlay

Missed Opportunities

• Overreacting to licensing news without modeling capex, logistics, or compliance delays.

• Ignoring freight market shifts caused by Atlantic-Asia cargo reallocation.

• Treating OPEC+ output signals as immediate physical supply.

Strategic Implications

• Procurement: Prioritize flexible contracts to capture new Venezuelan and Russian barrels.

• Hedging: Position in heavy-light spreads and freight curves over outright flat price.

• Trade Execution: Early alignment with shipping and storage providers can secure margin advantages.

Bottom Line

Global oil markets are navigating a complex recalibration: Venezuelan barrels return, Russian flows slow to Asia, India gains strategic leverage, and OPEC+ prepares controlled output normalization. Prices are range-bound, but flow execution, not headlines will set the next directional move.

For execution-focused analysis on Venezuelan, Russian, and OPEC+ supply dynamics, subscribe to the Valentia Energy Partners Newsroom for actionable insights.